Thursday, 13 November 2014

Book Review Series: A Menagerie of Speculative Follies


Review of The Pit and the Pendulum: A Menagerie of Speculative Follies, by David Harding & James W. Holmes (Winton Ed.)

Reviewer: Vardhan Kapoor
The Pit and the Pendulum: A Menagerie of Speculative Follies is an ambitious work which covers 700 years of financial crises through the looking glass of waves of optimism and pessimism.  The global financial crisis triggered an array of literature on the history of finance including David Graeber’s Debt: The First 5000 Years and Niall Ferguson’s The Ascent of Money. This addition to the literature is a welcome one, as it aims to break with some of the questionable assumptions that dog the academic discipline of economics and economic history.
The book analyses forty-six episodes of financial folly divided into seven eras, beginning with "Merchants, Kings and Projectors (1300-1700)" through "Napoleons, Titans and Pashans (1880-1900)" and finishing with "Yuppies, Tycoons & Quants (1985-2008)". The names of the themes reflect the erudite vivacity of the work, which includes an astounding amount of pertinent and symbolic art from the time of the events, as well as peppered insights from the academic literature.


The acquiescence of economic departments towards the validity of their methodology after the crash was a source of concern for the founders of Rethinking Economics. One of the most pervasive aspects of economics and economic history is its reliance on models that rely on a very particular sense of rational expectations as their starting premise. It is therefore very pleasing that, while pursuing detailed statistical analyses, David Harding’s explicitly aims to challenge the notion that markets are governed by an unalterable rationality: "Markets are human institutions, vital to progress, but they are not perfect. They reflect the humanity of their participants, and therefore we should neither worship nor despise them". This is an important nuance, one that some of the greatest economics minds have been quick to point it out; as Albert Hirschman said of Adam Smith, it wasn’t the government which he despised, but rather, their folly.

As a whole, the work proves extremely readable set of snapshots into instances of financial mania. There is a certain levity with respect to the suffering caused by the financial crashes through history; the narrative betrays a sense of wonder at the endless possibilities of market dynamics, but the book would benefit from having solutions to these issues. In a way, the lesson to take from it is that financial mania has a way of putting all of us under its spell. Ultimately the book succeeds in providing a scrumptious read.

Monday, 27 October 2014

Press Release: Rethinking Economics Position on CORE Curriculum


This month Rethinking Economics released a statement on its position on the new CORE curriculum being trialled at some institutions in the UK. Continue reading below for this statement, or visit the Rethinking Economics website to download a PDF copy.

London, UK- 16 October 2014 - The CORE Curriculum is not an answer to our demands for reform. CORE is more engaging in its teaching style, but falls short of creating broader content.

RE does not currently endorse any curriculum; instead, we have written our vision of a pluralistic curriculum (http://www.rethinkeconomics.org/#!our-vision/colf) and we support the ISIPE open letter, which we contributed to along with 65 student groups (www.isipe.net). We encourage educators and curriculum writers to sign up to publically support these visions.

What we are looking for is curricula that embody the three pluralisms: pluralism in methodology, pluralism in schools of thought, and pluralism in disciplines. This means at least a key role for the history of economic thought in a way that encourages debate over different schools of thought.

We believe it is important to introduce students to a critical approach to social science in general, meaning that students can engage in debate over schools of thought, rather than be introduced to one narrative. CORE does not supply this in its present state.

Rethinking Economics welcomes progress in economics education, a small part of which CORE has achieved, but we believe firmly there is still much more to be done in economics education reform.


ABOUT: Rethinking Economics is an international network of student groups, academics and professionals that are calling for change in the way economics is taught in higher education. Through a mixture of campaigning, events and engaging projects, Rethinking Economics connects people globally to discuss and enact the change needed for the future of economics, and to propel the vital debate on what economics is today.

Contact:
Joe Richards (Press Officer)
Rethinking Economics
www.rethinkeconomics.org
press@rethinkeconomics.org
Telephone: +44 (0) 7743 855305

ENDS 

Tuesday, 5 August 2014

Don't Rock the Ideological Boat (Too Much)

David Wells

In his opening keynote address at the recently-concluded Rethinking Economics conference in London (June 28-29, 2014), Lord Adair Turner dismissed the need for changes to microeconomics by referring to the beneficial use made of micro by two committees he chaired, the Pensions Commission and the Low Pay Commission.
        
His committees may well have benefited from microeconomic insights but that does not leave micro in the clear. After all, the centrepiece of the micro banquet is the model of perfect competition which is foundational for the theory of General Equilibrium which in turn lies behind those models which assured mainstream economists that the financial crash of 2008 was not merely unlikely but actually logically impossible: so micro has a lot to answer for.
        
Lord Turner then focused his attention entirely on macroeconomics. The obvious problem with this limitation is that it leaves most of the foundations of mainstream orthodox economics intact and so student rebels against orthodoxy are likely to be disappointed.

Every session I attended at the conference included at least one reference to ideology. In addition,'Whig' as in Whig history was heard at least once, and 'neoliberal' several times.
        
Yet no-one put these themes together to actually come out and say plainly that the ideology of mainstream economics is (extreme) liberal, let alone to argue that this ideology which naturally and inevitably promotes laissez faire and free markets and so on, leads to distorted and inadequate models of experience, as seen in current economic textbooks and in the 2008 crash.

Ha-Joon Chang in his concluding keynote called forcefully and eloquently for pluralism in economics teaching, without considering that some of the schools of thought within economics that he identified preach (the correct word) ideas and claims that are deeply ideological and deeply damaging, the prime culprit being the hegemonic and extreme liberal neoclassical school. Thus, I presume that DSGE models ought not to be included in any pluralist course, except possibly as a terrible example of ivory tower economists running amok.

Finally, just before the final keynote address, a short video was played in which Robert Johnson, the President of INET, sent his best wishes to the conference and congratulated the organisers - but also suggested at one point that the students should be 'guided' by INET.
        
This is strange. Why should the students be 'guided' by INET ? Why not the other way around? After all, it is the students who are the instigators of this revolution and who are at the front line, manning the barricades. INET are very active in their own way - the CORE curriculum project is especially interesting - and they supply invaluable funding, including for this conference*, but they are essentially secondary actors on the stage. The protagonists are the students, not just in the UK but all over the world: the ISIPE now has (at least) 65 member associations in 30 countries.

*        And for researchers. I applied for a grant myself and was rejected, probably quite rationally.

Putting these points together, and writing as one of the older generation who was actually there at the time, I am reminded of the 1965 essay by Herbert Marcuse on 'Repressive Tolerance'.
        
Lord Turner is happy to use his vast experience to re-examine macroeconomics, but the foundations are, frankly, OK. Everyone acknowledges that ideology is present, but no-one actually wants to analyse it deeply. Robert Johnson wishes the students well but hopes that they will accept his avuncular guidance, while Ha-Joon Chang favours pluralism but without examining any ideological skeletons that various schools might be hiding in their cupboards.


If I were a student, I think that I would find this extremely disturbing.

David Wells can be contacted at davidggwells@yahoo.co.uk

Thursday, 17 July 2014

Get Involved - Call for New Organisers

Want to join the Rethinking movement? We are looking for new organisers! Contact Yuan at rethinkeconomics.org to get involved :)

Newsletter Coordinator - Gather together news from around the RE network for our fortnightly letter. Let the world and our members know what is happening.

Secretary/Note-taker - Keep us all organised and up to date. Attend RE meetings and help us follow up on projects we agree to do together, by keeping all members of the group informed as to what has been discussed and agreed.

Media Coordinator - Be the front line for responding to the many print, online, radio and tv requests we get each week. Organise who is responding to what. You can also do interviews yourself if you like.

New Groups Liaison Officer - Take care of the expanding Rethinking Economics network. Be the first point of call for new groups who want help in starting up (can be grouped into locality or language if you prefer).

All these roles will be given plenty of training, help and contact with existing organisers to ease you into the role. Don’t let lack of experience stop you from getting involved!

Monday, 14 July 2014

Meet the Rethinkers: Dimitri Stoelinga of Laterite, Development Economics Research

Dimitri (right) with his co-founder, Sachin

Yuan’s Interview with Dimitri Stoelinga of Laterite (Development Economics Research - http://www.laterite-africa.com/), Kigali, Rwanda

“Economics is still in its early stages of development. When you go into an economics course, you should go in with a sense that this is a discipline that will change a lot in the next few years. Be anti-disciplinary. Do not let intellectual boundaries confine you.”

May 27th 2014 – Beijing, China and Kigali, Rwanda

Tell us a little about yourself – where did you grow up? What brought you to the path of studying economics?

I’m half-Greek, half-Dutch, and my parents always moved around. I chose to move around too, living in France, India, Angola, the US, Kenya, Rwanda, Malawi …I studied economics because I lived for a long time in Africa, and I really wanted to move back. I wanted to be involved in economic development.

I went to the Kennedy School to do the MPA in International Development. After that, I worked for the World Bank in Washington, and then in Kenya. I was getting frustrated with the whole set-up - I didn’t think it was the right place for a young person to be.

Why did you feel the World Bank was not the right place to be?


From a personal perspective, it was the work model itself. I felt the projects we were doing were not designed to fit the needs of the country itself. Economists from Washington would fly in and design a research project. Then they’d sell it to the local government. So we ended up with very large, very technical projects, based on little local context, and for which there was not much local ownership.

In Africa, the consultancy you get tends to be like that: fly-in, fly-out. We wanted to replace that model, and start research companies immersed in developing countries, which is why we started Laterite in Rwanda.

You mentioned that there was a “mismatch of people and projects.” What do you mean by this?

The World Bank has fantastic people - very committed, hard-working, who believe in what they're doing. But for operational roles – managing, let's say, a couple of large scale projects – they have economics PhDs with little operational and practical work experience outside the World Bank or academia.

So the mismatch comes from not understanding the local context, and thus focusing on tasks that exercise the skills one has, rather than tasks that exercise the skills the local project needs?

I think so, yes. What the World Bankers bring is logical design. On paper it makes sense - but in practice things are different, and what the country needs might be different.

To me this sounds like one of the general problems with economics teaching: on paper it all looks coherent, but in practice we may need very different tools! 

For yourself personally, what were the highs and lows of your Economics education?

One of the highs was definitely discovering all the possibilities of statistics and data analysis. I had a great professor, Alberto Abadie, who tries out all sorts of new program evaluation techniques and has come up with some fantastic ideas and tools – to give you one example, "synthetic controls". Another prof, Cesar Hidalgo, was looking into how to use network analysis and applying it to economics through exports networks.

All of this innovative data analysis fascinates me – and goes much beyond the linear regression framework that bugs economics research today.

The low? Definitely theory. So long as you understand the basic dynamics of a system, it felt very unhelpful for anyone’s career to study the amount of theory we did at Harvard. It felt both disconnected from reality and also at times misleading.

In what way do you think it was misleading?

A lot of what’s out there right now is very interesting – RCTs, Duflo and Banerjee’s work – but just applying, say, game theory, or some microeconomic models, will never really work in a local context. We barely use any theoretical models learnt from economic theory in our work.

What is the alternative – what do you use instead?

Data and empirical evidence. A lot of the tools we have are for post-event analysis: RCTs and evaluations after the fact. There are very few tools that have been developed for pre-event analysis or project design. We need to find better ways of testing why certain types of interventions are likely to work or not ahead of time, and do that in a very rigorous way. This could be through games or specially designed surveys, that happen on a large scale before projects and policies are rolled out.

This reminds me of the “participatory econometrics” movement – see http://www.cultureandpublicaction.org/bijupdf/EPW_ParticipatoryEconmetrics.pdf

Economists have tried to make economics a scientific discipline, with formulae and models, but at the end of the day, we know that few of these models really work, and they have very little evidence-base or real-world application. So I applaud the movement to Rethink!


Inspiration. What two thinkers, artists, creators, come to mind when you think of those who have inspired you or helped you along your way?

My top two are two professors: Cesar Hidalgo, at MIT. He’s a physicist by profession, and through studying physics became a master of network analysis – from natural, biological networks, to mobile phone networks, export goods networks. He’s been doing all this with tools completely unknown to the economics profession. What I admire is how anti-disciplinary he is; how he rejects disciplinary boundaries, and takes things from various fields. (http://chidalgo.com/ - https://twitter.com/cesifoti)

And very personally, Alberto Abadie. He helped me a lot along the way, giving me advice. I took from him the idea that you don’t need to work with real data, per se; you can work with synthetic data, with as much predictive value as real data.


Recommend one book we should read in the next half-year.

I’m very inspired by network theory, and how to apply it to economics. The book that introduced me to this was Linked, by Albert-László Barabási.


And one piece of music to listen to.

I spent five years of my life in Mali, which is the place I’ve stayed the longest. I absolutely love Malian music – it’s a world in itself. I’d recommend the song Amana Quai, by Vieux Farka Touré (the son of Ali Farka Touré): http://www.last.fm/music/Vieux+Farka+Tour%C3%A9/_/Amana+Quai


      If you could have a wish-list of 3 items, or 3 words, for the future of your project, what would they be, and why?

Grounded – in the local context. It affects how you ask questions, how you communicate, how you contribute without duplicating existing effort.

Anti-disciplinary – meaning, beyond disciplines. Not being stuck to one discipline, and working with people from many disciplines.

Human – principled in what we think is right. Sticking to what we believe in. Doing good.


What advice would you give to other young economists, and Rethinkers in general, starting out on their journey?

My sense is that economics is still in its early stages of development. When you go into an economics course, you should go in with a sense that this is a discipline that will change a lot in the next few years. I think this change will be brought by changes in data: new visualisations, big data analysis, new methods borrowed from other disciplines. And also, don’t neglect network theory – learn about it and how it might apply to some of the problems you want to solve.

Go in open-minded, and embrace all the new techniques! Try and master data. The empirics will make a huge difference to the discipline.

We’re setting up the Laterite Lab, where our team members do research together, and eventually we want to develop this into a more sort of formal lab, where we have people from different disciplines trying out new tools. We are currently recruiting new researchers: please get in contact via http://www.laterite-africa.com/.